Smokies "hiney showing" thread

[Collin H.]

 We have officially entered the "Hiney Showing" phase in the Smokies.  That is, homes being offered for less than what was paid for them very recently.  It's all a part of the boom/bust real estate cycle in resort areas.  The inevitable end to "But this time it's different" chants. 

I'll be posting these as I see them.  

Here's the first. No further bookings in April or May. It was purchased for $2.4 million in 2022.  Asking $2.25 million today, and offering $20K in "buyer credits".

3385 Birds Creek Rd, Sevierville, TN 37876 | MLS #1256702 | Zillow

[Jay Hinrichs]

Quote from @Victor S.:

Quote from @Jay Hinrichs:

Quote from @Victor S.:

Quote from @John Carbone:

This thread just needs some optimistic positive thinking….where is Luke Carl at to fire everyone back up? 

 LMAO! shots fired

just checked his and his wife's profiles and both hadn't posted since September. Still active on YI think they are still doing a module at BP con though.   these things cycle and I am sure many of their clients got in early and are just fine.  I dont really know what they do I

 yeah, it's just odd they both dropped off around the same time. i guess pods/YT pay more than trying to catch fish on here.

 one thing is certain BP giviths and takes away.. when things are good folks are singing your praises. when things shift its time to duck.. just look at all the syndicator threads going around where these folks were rock stars 3 years ago and now investors are out for  well you know what. 

[Mike Anderson]

Quote from @Jay Hinrichs:

that condo collapse disaster is affecting a lot of the older units no doubt.

Thats an interesting topic too especially for Florida. It's not even older units its a lot of the units for one reason or another. You have certain complexes where the HOA fee's monthly are 2k, 2500, some 1500. Huge jumps from just a few years ago. So then the question becomes if those stay and or go higher, condos will drop in price dramatically, but will anyone buy with those rates? Sure in key area like Miami and other areas but there are a lot of condos like this. So then what? If people start walking away from the condo and just stop paying HOA's could go insolvent.

[Jay Hinrichs]

Quote from @Mike Anderson:

Quote from @Jay Hinrichs:

that condo collapse disaster is affecting a lot of the older units no doubt.

Thats an interesting topic too especially for Florida. It's not even older units its a lot of the units for one reason or another. You have certain complexes where the HOA fee's monthly are 2k, 2500, some 1500. Huge jumps from just a few years ago. So then the question becomes if those stay and or go higher, condos will drop in price dramatically, but will anyone buy with those rates? Sure in key area like Miami and other areas but there are a lot of condos like this. So then what? If people start walking away from the condo and just stop paying HOA's could go insolvent.

that happened in the GFC for sure.. half vacant buildings HoA defunct. I am in Honolulu this week and looked at a foreclosure condo in the towner next to me and HOA is 1300 and the building is working fine.. 2 bd 2 ba 1k sq ft nice kitchen and bath just needs carpet and paint opening bid 1.3 persona losing it only had a 750k mortgage the rest is unpaid payments taxs' insurance and HOAs must have lived there 5 years or so making zero payments to anyone.

[Susan Maneck]

Quote from @Peter Woerner:

Quote from @Scott Trench:

I've discussed the REI market at length, and I've been a little skeptical of the smokies for a while now. It's a very regional play - or appears to me. I'm in CO. There's no world where I get on a plane to travel to a cabin in the smoky mountains in the US southeast. I can, for roughly the same price go to beaches, major cities, other countries, etc.

I also think that, generally, STRs are not like a one off way to build wealth. Buying a vacation home and thinking it brings in cash flow is a sure way to make the locals rich, as vacation rental communities are extremely seasoned at extracting wealth from visitors, perhaps especially including those who own remotely. 

This creates a particularly challenging environment for the investor in a general sense:

- A regional vacation market

- Competing not with other rational investors, but with people who just have a mountain home; and therefore are fine to run it at a loss.

- Competition can and actually will increase in bad times, because people who own casually for second homes will try to get something instead of nothing by listing their properties for the first time.

- People will fight to give everything they have to keep their primary residence, but if their second or vacation home becomes a pain in the rear, they’ll sell. This can create huge swings in inventory.

- Buying that first STR property in a "hot" vacation market that isn't local therefore seems like one of the highest risk investments one can possibly make.

I will not be surprised to see pain in several similar markets around the country, perhaps including certain desert locations that surged in popularity, certain lake areas, and the pain may extend to even areas like CO mountain towns, despite the fact that unlike the smokies, people do travel from all around the world and country to get there.

 The smokies are the most visited national park in America. I agree that the west is more beautiful, but they are accessible to everyone on the east coast. They are 8 hours from northern Florida, DC, Atlanta, Charlotte. No one west of the Mississippi is heading there for vacation, but there are way more people to the East than the west. while you may classify it as a “regional park” it gets as many tourists as the next three most visited parks combined. I have no opinions on your other comments though.

 I can understand why someone from Colorado might think like Scott, but as Californian who found herself transplanted to the South for more than thirty years, living in five states, I have to agree with Peter. Call it regional if you like, but it is people from a BIG region who go there. If we have another recession like 2008, I'm buying a place there! 

[JD Martin]

Quote from @Collin H.:

Quote from @JD Martin:

 I am personally an example of the whole thing. I have a lot of equity locked in my personal home. I'd like to move a little closer in, get a little more land but be on one level (I'm on two now) as we get older to make maintenance and aging in place easier. I can't find anything in my price range (or that I'm willing to pay), and even if I could the mortgage amounts are more than I can stomach even with a very large down payment. So I just am not a participant at all any more (personally, not investment-wise), and through my agent I know there's a lot of people where I am on this track. 

What you are describing are the unintended consequences of government overreach:  The Fed has been tampering with interest rates to keep them artificially low for a number of years, in an effort to avoid a recession. That has led to inflation, which has led to the Fed's hand being forced to raise interest rates.  That has resulted in mortgage rates over double what they were just 24 months ago. 

As a result of that, 62 percent of homeowners are enjoying a mortgage of 4 percent APR or less.  Like you, these owners are no longer players in the real estate game, as they would be foolish to trade and double their borrowing costs.  

When 62 percent of property owners have been eliminated from the world of real estate transactions, that just leaves 38 percent to play with.  This imbalance will take a generation to unwind. If the government further tampers with the situation in any way, the problem will only be exacerbated.

 Exactly. The Fed painted themselves into a corner over the last decade plus, partly because the gutting of the manufacturing sector meant that housing & service had to take up the slack for the loss of jobs (direct and ancillary). They were afraid to wreck the train by raising rates which was fine until the flood of stimulus money collided with the temporary scarcity of COVID. Now the whole thing has gone off the rails. But they will bring the rates back down because our economy cannot afford a long-term freeze or destruction of housing, at least not without bringing something else in first to take its place as an employer. 

[Kingsley Thomas]

Quote from @Collin H.:

Quote from @JD Martin:

 I am personally an example of the whole thing. I have a lot of equity locked in my personal home. I'd like to move a little closer in, get a little more land but be on one level (I'm on two now) as we get older to make maintenance and aging in place easier. I can't find anything in my price range (or that I'm willing to pay), and even if I could the mortgage amounts are more than I can stomach even with a very large down payment. So I just am not a participant at all any more (personally, not investment-wise), and through my agent I know there's a lot of people where I am on this track. 

What you are describing are the unintended consequences of government overreach:  The Fed has been tampering with interest rates to keep them artificially low for a number of years, in an effort to avoid a recession. That has led to inflation, which has led to the Fed's hand being forced to raise interest rates.  That has resulted in mortgage rates over double what they were just 24 months ago. 

As a result of that, 62 percent of homeowners are enjoying a mortgage of 4 percent APR or less.  Like you, these owners are no longer players in the real estate game, as they would be foolish to trade and double their borrowing costs.  

When 62 percent of property owners have been eliminated from the world of real estate transactions, that just leaves 38 percent to play with.  This imbalance will take a generation to unwind. If the government further tampers with the situation in any way, the problem will only be exacerbated.

40% of US properties have no mortgage at all.  That number is much higher in resort areas.  Also 30% of people who sell a home don't buy another.  The lock in effect has been a bit overstated in my opinion.  It won't take a generation to unwind

[JD Martin]

Quote from @Kingsley Thomas:

Quote from @Collin H.:

Quote from @JD Martin:

 I am personally an example of the whole thing. I have a lot of equity locked in my personal home. I'd like to move a little closer in, get a little more land but be on one level (I'm on two now) as we get older to make maintenance and aging in place easier. I can't find anything in my price range (or that I'm willing to pay), and even if I could the mortgage amounts are more than I can stomach even with a very large down payment. So I just am not a participant at all any more (personally, not investment-wise), and through my agent I know there's a lot of people where I am on this track. 

What you are describing are the unintended consequences of government overreach:  The Fed has been tampering with interest rates to keep them artificially low for a number of years, in an effort to avoid a recession. That has led to inflation, which has led to the Fed's hand being forced to raise interest rates.  That has resulted in mortgage rates over double what they were just 24 months ago. 

As a result of that, 62 percent of homeowners are enjoying a mortgage of 4 percent APR or less.  Like you, these owners are no longer players in the real estate game, as they would be foolish to trade and double their borrowing costs.  

When 62 percent of property owners have been eliminated from the world of real estate transactions, that just leaves 38 percent to play with.  This imbalance will take a generation to unwind. If the government further tampers with the situation in any way, the problem will only be exacerbated.

40% of US properties have no mortgage at all.  That number is much higher in resort areas.  Also 30% of people who sell a home don't buy another.  The lock in effect has been a bit overstated in my opinion.  It won't take a generation to unwind

 It is less the lock than the combination of high interest and high prices that's going to make a bigger difference. Every point is about $500-700 in the median ranges, say $300-500k. So 2 points runs an extra grand or so on the mortgage, which is a lot of money to people in that price range. 

[Steve K.]

I wonder what other secondary/vacation rental/STR markets are seeing a similar uptick in inventory... I've seen a few properties in Colorado mountain towns for sale recently with STR licenses that transfer with the property (rare to find because the waiting list to get a license is many, many applicants deep. It can take years to get one of these licenses). Some of them have actually been on the market for a few months now (also rare). But inventory is still only at 3 months (up from just a few weeks during the peak in 2022), and average sold price is actually up 24% from last year... so I think it's just a few unrealistic sellers and not necessarily indicative of a trend because it's literally just a couple of properties. Still, in 2022 they would have sold immediately even if way over-priced compared to comps, just due to the location and the STR license that they come with, so it's an indication of a market change from the peak. I'd call it a trend back towards a normal market however, not a crash. Prior to covid it would normally take a few months to sell a $2M home, instead of a few hours. Anyway I bet it's not just the smokies, I'm guessing a lot of the secondary/vacation rental/ STR markets are seeing inventory slowly increasing.

[Jay Hinrichs]

Quote from @JD Martin:

Quote from @Kingsley Thomas:

Quote from @Collin H.:

Quote from @JD Martin:

 I am personally an example of the whole thing. I have a lot of equity locked in my personal home. I'd like to move a little closer in, get a little more land but be on one level (I'm on two now) as we get older to make maintenance and aging in place easier. I can't find anything in my price range (or that I'm willing to pay), and even if I could the mortgage amounts are more than I can stomach even with a very large down payment. So I just am not a participant at all any more (personally, not investment-wise), and through my agent I know there's a lot of people where I am on this track. 

What you are describing are the unintended consequences of government overreach:  The Fed has been tampering with interest rates to keep them artificially low for a number of years, in an effort to avoid a recession. That has led to inflation, which has led to the Fed's hand being forced to raise interest rates.  That has resulted in mortgage rates over double what they were just 24 months ago. 

As a result of that, 62 percent of homeowners are enjoying a mortgage of 4 percent APR or less.  Like you, these owners are no longer players in the real estate game, as they would be foolish to trade and double their borrowing costs.  

When 62 percent of property owners have been eliminated from the world of real estate transactions, that just leaves 38 percent to play with.  This imbalance will take a generation to unwind. If the government further tampers with the situation in any way, the problem will only be exacerbated.

40% of US properties have no mortgage at all.  That number is much higher in resort areas.  Also 30% of people who sell a home don't buy another.  The lock in effect has been a bit overstated in my opinion.  It won't take a generation to unwind

 It is less the lock than the combination of high interest and high prices that's going to make a bigger difference. Every point is about $500-700 in the median ranges, say $300-500k. So 2 points runs an extra grand or so on the mortgage, which is a lot of money to people in that price range. 

for sure the FHA VA rural farm type low money down buyer is affected. what I am seeing in my new builds that are 700 to 1mil is people putting very large downpayments down and they are selling move up or starter homes to buy our homes.. I guess we have a little honey hole as we have 17 sales in my development currently .. however I think the paid for personal resi cant be understated for the safety and secruity of our citizens and our real estate market as a whole.

[Kyle Smith]

Quote from @Ken Boone:

Quote from @John Carbone:

also the pool cabin pumpers during Covid did exceptionally well when kids were doing school from home and there was a lot of demand year round for pools in off peak times…now those pool cabins sit empty because kids are in school and people aren’t willing to pay a premium to stay so the place sits unoccupied. All of this was very predictable, but unfortunately only a few here were able to see this 2-4 years ago. A memorable reply I recall  from a pumper here back then was “I wont let you rain on my parade” … well now it’s a tsunami coming inland and it doesn’t care about your feelings. 

Well I for one bought pool cabins for times like this and I am so glad I did.  Are things down - yes.  Did I have to lower ADR - yes.  But my 2 bedroom pool cabins are doing way better than my 3 bedroom cabin on the mountain ridge with absolutely amazing views.   

The pool is the top amenity - not the view that gets preached so much.  So in times like this I am so glad I have pool cabins. But because I bought right and didn’t fall into the frenzy and pay through the roof for my pool cabins I’m still doing well and making money.  Not 2021-2022 money but more like 2019 money. 

So buying the pool cabin was not a bad thing at all. In fact it’s probably one of the smartest things I did.   But buying them at 2021-2023 prices would have been very tough.  

 There are about 10,000-11,000 cabins in Sevier county that all look the same.   Maybe 5% look different or have something unique or different.  Those things are crucial to riding out a ression IMO.  I would rather fight for position amongst the 5% vs the 95%.  

[John Carbone]

Drove around downtown gatlinburg to look at some “premier” new construction properties that are for sale. These things are all stacked up on the same block and look absolutely awful, nothing close that resembles this market. But….if you’re willing to pay 2x or more of what it’s worth…they are advertising “owner financing” as shown below…no appraisal needed! If anyone wishes to engage in these owner financing “deals”  try to get a negative interest rate from them 😂 

This one looks like an oversized garage with a loft on top 

[Jay Hinrichs]

Quote from @John Carbone:

Drove around downtown gatlinburg to look at some “premier” new construction properties that are for sale. These things are all stacked up on the same block and look absolutely awful, nothing close that resembles this market. But….if you’re willing to pay 2x or more of what it’s worth…they are advertising “owner financing” as shown below…no appraisal needed! If anyone wishes to engage in these owner financing “deals”  try to get a negative interest rate from them 😂 

those are like Portland Or moderns.  I built some like that out at Hood River Oregon and they were super popular but better looking than those but still had shed roofs etc. 
was wondering if this is like a gold rush area maybe instead of mining the gold you sell the pots and pans to all the tourists ??? 

[Kyle Smith]

I’d like to throw this out there and get everyone’s thoughts on this.  So, at this time I’m unsure if we have 100% fully recovered from the fires as far as cabin counts go.   Once we recover, which it appears we will this year in my opinion, how many additional cabins and hotels will be built?   How many more vacationers can Gatlinburg and PF expect?   What is its capacity to grow?   I see possible growth toward the 407 and what’s going on there.  But, baring some Disney type of big attraction coming to the area, I think it’s safe to say 2019 visitor counts, plus say maybe an additional 20% due to awareness of the area post COVID, is all we can expect.  My reasoning is telling me we may never see anything outside 2019 visitor counts ever again in our lifetime unless recreational and attraction growth increases.  
Inflation is already built into the new rates per night and we will continue to see rates drop.  The current cabin prices are inflated obviously but I’m thinking we will see a huge drop in cabin prices to match the new norm which is actually the old norm.  New hotels are going up left and right and cabins are still being built.  I feel we’ve overshot the 2019 norms and are heading into over saturation.   Right now, builders are coming to me trying to help me find land, etc.  Some of the great legends in the area are getting super nervous.  One of them was a year lead time to start, now he has two houses he’s finishing up with zero houses behind it to start on.  It’s going to be an interesting 2024-2025.  I think we are going to see a great shutdown of investor interest in the area.  I think this market will sit idle and be on a lifeline for the next 3-5 years IMO.  

[Chris Watson]

Quote from @Kyle Smith:

I’d like to throw this out there and get everyone’s thoughts on this.  So, at this time I’m unsure if we have 100% fully recovered from the fires as far as cabin counts go.   Once we recover, which it appears we will this year in my opinion, how many additional cabins and hotels will be built?   How many more vacationers can Gatlinburg and PF expect?   What is its capacity to grow?   I see possible growth toward the 407 and what’s going on there.  But, baring some Disney type of big attraction coming to the area, I think it’s safe to say 2019 visitor counts, plus say maybe an additional 20% due to awareness of the area post COVID, is all we can expect.  My reasoning is telling me we may never see anything outside 2019 visitor counts ever again in our lifetime unless recreational and attraction growth increases.  
Inflation is already built into the new rates per night and we will continue to see rates drop.  The current cabin prices are inflated obviously but I’m thinking we will see a huge drop in cabin prices to match the new norm which is actually the old norm.  New hotels are going up left and right and cabins are still being built.  I feel we’ve overshot the 2019 norms and are heading into over saturation.   Right now, builders are coming to me trying to help me find land, etc.  Some of the great legends in the area are getting super nervous.  One of them was a year lead time to start, now he has two houses he’s finishing up with zero houses behind it to start on.  It’s going to be an interesting 2024-2025.  I think we are going to see a great shutdown of investor interest in the area.  I think this market will sit idle and be on a lifeline for the next 3-5 years IMO.  

 I would argue we have definitely recovered from the fires and added 20%-25% to the inventory.  I see about 23,787 rentals on airdna (given a few are hotel rooms, camping sites and rvs renting on AirBnB & VRBO) so lets round to 24,000 and I will just guess another 26,000 hotel rooms/rv spots/campsites.  So the number for a fun play is 50,000 room nights available every night or 18,250,000 room nights per year. 

The GSMNP attendance is still tracking close to 13,000,000 and will likely hit it again this year. At least 20% of the areas visitors never go to the GSMNP so add another 2,600,000 for a total of 15,600,000 visitors to Sevier County. The average groups size is 4 and the avg stay is 4 nights (some research suggests 5 nights).  This means there are 15,600,000 room nights needed at 4 night stays which if divided equally among the 50,000 room nights available would equal 312 days of occupancy per cabin/hotel room 85% occupancy.  If the avg stay is 3 nights then the number of room nights needed is 11,700,000 which would be 234 room nights a year per property/room or 64% occupancy.  So for the year cabin occupancy should be 64%-85%.  Now it is late at night so please let me know if my numbers are wrong and I will not take offense, but my point is the visitors numbers will stay close to steady, inventory is still increasing at a slower pace and what people are willing to pay may decrease and even if they are willing to pay more per night some owners have already put them on clearance prices for them.  Builders are slowing because people rightfully are questioning building at today's interest rates and the unknown of next year, we have experienced our first normal first 4 months in 5 years and people are scared because they never experienced normal (it is the slow season and Easter was early curtailing spring break).  We need to go from the 70-80 building permits (per the planning dept) issued a month from 2019-2022 to about 15 to 20 per month outside of true owner occupied or LTRs.  When this happens about 2 out of 3 builders will fold as the market can not support them.  Just my late night thoughts as I usually go on BP when I drink my morning coffee....

[Kyle Smith]

Interesting take here and your assumption may be correct.  I’d like to get with the county appraiser and see what the real counts are to give us a true picture.  It’s been about a year since I had the latest stats. 

[Chris Watson]

Quote from @Kyle Smith:

Interesting take here and your assumption may be correct.  I’d like to get with the county appraiser and see what the real counts are to give us a true picture.  It’s been about a year since I had the latest stats. 

 I expect I way over estimated the number of STRs and Hotel rooms and occupancy is closer to 75% to 90% for 2024 depending on the economy, but mostly on the product/service/location being offered by each owner/property and the manager (including self) ability to actually be a manager.  Just like with real estate agents, now we all have to work a little bit harder now if we want to be successful.  

[John Carbone]

Quote from @Ken Boone:

Quote from @John Carbone:

also the pool cabin pumpers during Covid did exceptionally well when kids were doing school from home and there was a lot of demand year round for pools in off peak times…now those pool cabins sit empty because kids are in school and people aren’t willing to pay a premium to stay so the place sits unoccupied. All of this was very predictable, but unfortunately only a few here were able to see this 2-4 years ago. A memorable reply I recall  from a pumper here back then was “I wont let you rain on my parade” … well now it’s a tsunami coming inland and it doesn’t care about your feelings. 

Well I for one bought pool cabins for times like this and I am so glad I did.  Are things down - yes.  Did I have to lower ADR - yes.  But my 2 bedroom pool cabins are doing way better than my 3 bedroom cabin on the mountain ridge with absolutely amazing views.   

The pool is the top amenity - not the view that gets preached so much.  So in times like this I am so glad I have pool cabins. But because I bought right and didn’t fall into the frenzy and pay through the roof for my pool cabins I’m still doing well and making money.  Not 2021-2022 money but more like 2019 money. 

So buying the pool cabin was not a bad thing at all. In fact it’s probably one of the smartest things I did.   But buying them at 2021-2023 prices would have been very tough.  

 What is your occupancy like for May on the pool cabins?

[Ken Boone]

Quote from @John Carbone:

Quote from @Ken Boone:

Quote from @John Carbone:

also the pool cabin pumpers during Covid did exceptionally well when kids were doing school from home and there was a lot of demand year round for pools in off peak times…now those pool cabins sit empty because kids are in school and people aren’t willing to pay a premium to stay so the place sits unoccupied. All of this was very predictable, but unfortunately only a few here were able to see this 2-4 years ago. A memorable reply I recall  from a pumper here back then was “I wont let you rain on my parade” … well now it’s a tsunami coming inland and it doesn’t care about your feelings. 

Well I for one bought pool cabins for times like this and I am so glad I did.  Are things down - yes.  Did I have to lower ADR - yes.  But my 2 bedroom pool cabins are doing way better than my 3 bedroom cabin on the mountain ridge with absolutely amazing views.   

The pool is the top amenity - not the view that gets preached so much.  So in times like this I am so glad I have pool cabins. But because I bought right and didn’t fall into the frenzy and pay through the roof for my pool cabins I’m still doing well and making money.  Not 2021-2022 money but more like 2019 money. 

So buying the pool cabin was not a bad thing at all. In fact it’s probably one of the smartest things I did.   But buying them at 2021-2023 prices would have been very tough.  

 What is your occupancy like for May on the pool cabins?

Roughly 40%, I am expecting May to hit around 50-55% with last minute bookings and price changes coming in to May.  May has traditionally been a slow month prior to Covid.  

[Collin H.]

Quote from @Ken Boone:

Quote from @John Carbone:

Quote from @Ken Boone:

Quote from @John Carbone:

also the pool cabin pumpers during Covid did exceptionally well when kids were doing school from home and there was a lot of demand year round for pools in off peak times…now those pool cabins sit empty because kids are in school and people aren’t willing to pay a premium to stay so the place sits unoccupied. All of this was very predictable, but unfortunately only a few here were able to see this 2-4 years ago. A memorable reply I recall  from a pumper here back then was “I wont let you rain on my parade” … well now it’s a tsunami coming inland and it doesn’t care about your feelings. 

Well I for one bought pool cabins for times like this and I am so glad I did.  Are things down - yes.  Did I have to lower ADR - yes.  But my 2 bedroom pool cabins are doing way better than my 3 bedroom cabin on the mountain ridge with absolutely amazing views.   

The pool is the top amenity - not the view that gets preached so much.  So in times like this I am so glad I have pool cabins. But because I bought right and didn’t fall into the frenzy and pay through the roof for my pool cabins I’m still doing well and making money.  Not 2021-2022 money but more like 2019 money. 

So buying the pool cabin was not a bad thing at all. In fact it’s probably one of the smartest things I did.   But buying them at 2021-2023 prices would have been very tough.  

 What is your occupancy like for May on the pool cabins?

Roughly 40%, I am expecting May to hit around 50-55% with last minute bookings and price changes coming in to May.  May has traditionally been a slow month prior to Covid.  

 Awesome!  Do you have a link to your cabins? I don't know that I've ever seen them.

[Ken Boone]

Quote from @Collin H.:

Quote from @Ken Boone:

Quote from @John Carbone:

Quote from @Ken Boone:

Quote from @John Carbone:

also the pool cabin pumpers during Covid did exceptionally well when kids were doing school from home and there was a lot of demand year round for pools in off peak times…now those pool cabins sit empty because kids are in school and people aren’t willing to pay a premium to stay so the place sits unoccupied. All of this was very predictable, but unfortunately only a few here were able to see this 2-4 years ago. A memorable reply I recall  from a pumper here back then was “I wont let you rain on my parade” … well now it’s a tsunami coming inland and it doesn’t care about your feelings. 

Well I for one bought pool cabins for times like this and I am so glad I did.  Are things down - yes.  Did I have to lower ADR - yes.  But my 2 bedroom pool cabins are doing way better than my 3 bedroom cabin on the mountain ridge with absolutely amazing views.   

The pool is the top amenity - not the view that gets preached so much.  So in times like this I am so glad I have pool cabins. But because I bought right and didn’t fall into the frenzy and pay through the roof for my pool cabins I’m still doing well and making money.  Not 2021-2022 money but more like 2019 money. 

So buying the pool cabin was not a bad thing at all. In fact it’s probably one of the smartest things I did.   But buying them at 2021-2023 prices would have been very tough.  

 What is your occupancy like for May on the pool cabins?

Roughly 40%, I am expecting May to hit around 50-55% with last minute bookings and price changes coming in to May.  May has traditionally been a slow month prior to Covid.  

 Awesome!  Do you have a link to your cabins? I don't know that I've ever seen them.

 Well not as awesome as that!  I did a quick glance before and ironically my non pool cabin has a 66% occupancy which was skewing my average.  Normally that cabin is much lower than the pool cabins.  The pool cabins are showing 20, 30 and 36% occupancy for May.  I still think I will hit the 50-55% mark for the pool cabins in May given the rate of last minute bookings we have been taking all year.  I still have a few weekends left on some of them so those are sure to book as well.

You can see the cabins at peacefulcabinrentals.com

[Collin H.]

Quote from @Ken Boone:

Quote from @Collin H.:

Quote from @Ken Boone:

Quote from @John Carbone:

Quote from @Ken Boone:

Quote from @John Carbone:

also the pool cabin pumpers during Covid did exceptionally well when kids were doing school from home and there was a lot of demand year round for pools in off peak times…now those pool cabins sit empty because kids are in school and people aren’t willing to pay a premium to stay so the place sits unoccupied. All of this was very predictable, but unfortunately only a few here were able to see this 2-4 years ago. A memorable reply I recall  from a pumper here back then was “I wont let you rain on my parade” … well now it’s a tsunami coming inland and it doesn’t care about your feelings. 

Well I for one bought pool cabins for times like this and I am so glad I did.  Are things down - yes.  Did I have to lower ADR - yes.  But my 2 bedroom pool cabins are doing way better than my 3 bedroom cabin on the mountain ridge with absolutely amazing views.   

The pool is the top amenity - not the view that gets preached so much.  So in times like this I am so glad I have pool cabins. But because I bought right and didn’t fall into the frenzy and pay through the roof for my pool cabins I’m still doing well and making money.  Not 2021-2022 money but more like 2019 money. 

So buying the pool cabin was not a bad thing at all. In fact it’s probably one of the smartest things I did.   But buying them at 2021-2023 prices would have been very tough.  

 What is your occupancy like for May on the pool cabins?

Roughly 40%, I am expecting May to hit around 50-55% with last minute bookings and price changes coming in to May.  May has traditionally been a slow month prior to Covid.  

 Awesome!  Do you have a link to your cabins? I don't know that I've ever seen them.

 Well not as awesome as that!  I did a quick glance before and ironically my non pool cabin has a 66% occupancy which was skewing my average.  Normally that cabin is much lower than the pool cabins.  The pool cabins are showing 20, 30 and 36% occupancy for May.  I still think I will hit the 50-55% mark for the pool cabins in May given the rate of last minute bookings we have been taking all year.  I still have a few weekends left on some of them so those are sure to book as well.

You can see the cabins at peacefulcabinrentals.com

 nice places!

[V.G Jason]

My agent refutes all of our fear mongering. She states there's still multiple offers and its a sellers market. That my thinking is still wrong and when I am ready to change my mind, she is here. She also believes that it still hasn't peaked. 

Even though, I know that's very well not true at all. Can you imagine the average Joe peeking into the markets and hearing this? This just creates FOMO. 

[Collin H.]

Quote from @V.G Jason:

My agent refutes all of our fear mongering. She states there's still multiple offers and its a sellers market. That my thinking is still wrong and when I am ready to change my mind, she is here. She also believes that it still hasn't peaked. 

Even though, I know that's very well not true at all. Can you imagine the average Joe peeking into the markets and hearing this? This just creates FOMO. 

Your agent is making a living by selling real estate, so of course "it still hasn't peaked."  That's like asking my banker if it's a good time to save money. 

Most of the properties on the market are still priced according to 2021 and 2022 multiples. Those were bubble years and might not be repeated, in real dollars, for many years.  

We have returned to 2019-level demand and supply.  "Normal".  Vacation rental prices haven't returned to normal yet, but they will.  Generally, though not absolutely, the folks buying right now are going to feel pretty foolish in another year or two.  BUT BUT BUT...there are ALWAYS good deals out there, even today.

[V.G Jason]

Quote from @Collin H.:

Quote from @V.G Jason:

My agent refutes all of our fear mongering. She states there's still multiple offers and its a sellers market. That my thinking is still wrong and when I am ready to change my mind, she is here. She also believes that it still hasn't peaked. 

Even though, I know that's very well not true at all. Can you imagine the average Joe peeking into the markets and hearing this? This just creates FOMO. 

Your agent is making a living by selling real estate, so of course "it still hasn't peaked."  That's like asking my banker if it's a good time to save money. 

Most of the properties on the market are still priced according to 2021 and 2022 multiples. Those were bubble years and might not be repeated, in real dollars, for many years.  

We have returned to 2019-level demand and supply.  "Normal".  Vacation rental prices haven't returned to normal yet, but they will.  Generally, though not absolutely, the folks buying right now are going to feel pretty foolish in another year or two.  BUT BUT BUT...there are ALWAYS good deals out there, even today.

 I don't disagree but this is the problem with agents. They act like gatekeepers too, when we as an investors want to get our hands dirty. 

[Collin H.]

Quote from @V.G Jason:

 I don't disagree but this is the problem with agents. They act like gatekeepers too, when we as an investors want to get our hands dirty. 

An "agent" should be utilized as a go-between to get a sale negotiated, as well as all of the necessary paperwork once a deal is reached. A real estate agent should never be substituted as a financial or investment advisor. It would be like me asking the salesman at the local Toyota dealership if I should buy a car, and how much can I afford. 

I must be the sole owner of my investment choices. Wise counsel is good, but ultimately, it is me that has to do the homework.